Brier score

From Glossary of Meteorology



Brier score

Useful for assessing the accuracy of predictions that are stated as probabilities, such as probabilities of the occurrence of precipitation,
ams2001glos-Be20
where fp is the forecasted probability for an event, and the verification term v = 1 if the event did occur and v = 0 if it did not, for each (i) of the total number (n) forecasts.

Brier scores SB range between 0.0 for perfect forecasting and 1.0 for the worst possible forecasting.
See skill.