(Often called perfect prog, perfect prognosis method.) A method or technique of developing objective forecasting aids.
relationships are found between a predictand
and one or more observed variables
that can be forecast by one or more numerical (dynamic) prediction
models. The relationships can be determined by linear
or nonlinear regression
, multiple discriminant analysis
, or other statistical methods. In practice, the relationships are applied to the appropriate output
of numerical prediction model(s) to yield forecasts of the predictand. In essence, the output of the model
(s) is considered perfect, hence the name. The difference between model output statistics
) and perfect prognostic is that in MOS the predictand is related to the actual model output, while in perfect prog, the predictand is related to observations or representations of them at (nearly) concurrent times.
Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this work, please contact [email protected]. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code § 107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S.Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, require written permission or a license from AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement.